VOLCANIC SIMUL(AI)TION DOST-PHIVOLCS, UP Resilience Institute, use AI-model in volcano monitoring

With a high surge of volcanic activity observed in the Philippines since the first quarter of 2026, disaster management organizations across the nation have aimed to mitigate volcanic impact through the help of artificial intelligence simulation models.

The Department of Science and Technology - Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (DOST-PHIVOLCS) and the University of the Philippines (UP) Resilience Institute utilized open-source model Ash3D in the recent February 19, 25, and March 15 Mount Kanlaon eruptions.

The latest eruptions disrupted livelihoods in the Negros Island region as locals report ash-covered communities, with March 15 marking the volcano’s third moderately-explosive eruption of the year.

An ashy assistant

Developed by the United States Geological Survey, Ash3D forecasts the travel distance and accumulation of volcanic ash over a specific region through eruption factors such as plume height, volume, and duration, serving as a framework for DOST-PHIVOLCS and the UP Resilience Institute.

Through the model, simulation results were verified with official Kanlaon eruption data, improving risk communication, assessment, and monitoring of the volcano.

This provides local government units, hazard teams, and vulnerable communities with critical information of eruption impacts in nearby areas, strengthening safety and preparation measures for future volcanic eruptions.

Recent updates

In the first 13 days of April, DOST-PHIVOLCS logged 24 ash emissions from Mount Kanlaon, reporting a 400-meter plume on the morning of April 12.

The institute maintains Alert Level 2 on the volcano since July 29, 2025, prohibiting entry into its four-kilometer Permanent Danger Zone.

Meanwhile, statuses on other active volcanoes in the Philippines, Mayon, is on Alert Level 3, while Bulusan and Taal, are on Alert Level 1 thus far.

Such conditions emphasize the integral role of Ash3D and simulation models in the efficient and proper handling of volcanic disasters.